Lula wins Brazil runoff as the real and ADRs slide; oil eases before a central bank week

Key figure: 10-year Treasury par yield, Oct. 23: 5.00%, ▲ +4 bp vs. Oct. 22. Source: U.S. Treasury.

Key points

• Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, per the TSE; Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded.[1][4]
• EWZ fell 19.61% and Petrobras ADRs 15.90% in New York night trade, Exame reported.[6]
• Brent fell 2.20% to $114.52 Monday in Asia, CNBC reported, off a six-month high.[8][10]
• The Fed, ECB and BOJ decide Wednesday to Friday; S&P 500 futures rose, per CNBC.[8][9]

Lula takes a fourth term; Flávio Bolsonaro seeks annulment

Macroeconomics & Policy

Lula took 51.79% of valid votes to 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, the TSE’s final tally shows; the Guardian and BBC reported the same count.[1][3][4] Bolsonaro said he would seek annulment over a court-ordered two-hour voting extension.[4][11]

Why it matters: Bolsonaro’s challenge adds a legal fight before the new term starts Jan. 5, 2027.[2][15]

Real futures and Brazil ADRs reverse the Bolsonaro rally

Markets & Finance

By about 12:20 a.m. ET, EWZ was down 19.61% and Petrobras ADRs 15.90%, Exame reported; Folha had real futures down 10.12% Sunday night.[5][6] Stocks had closed Friday almost 7% above their first-round level, Reuters said.[7]

Why it matters: Embraer, an exporter, fell 1.20%, the smallest drop Exame listed. Investors expect bets on a change of government to unwind, Reuters reported, and UBS’s Alejo Czerwonko said sentiment would stay weak “until a clear fiscal plan emerges.”[6][7]

Brent slips from a six-month high on reports of Qatari mediation

Markets & Finance

Brent fell 2.20% to $114.52 Monday as of CNBC’s 3:42 a.m. ET update, after settling at $116.72 on Friday, Oct. 23, per Reuters.[8][10] Reuters cited reports that Qatari mediators were in Tehran Sunday.[9]

Why it matters: Reuters said the inflationary pulse from oil is likely to alarm all the central banks that are meeting this week.[9]

Fed, ECB and BOJ decide this week; U.S. futures edge up

Macroeconomics & Policy

S&P 500 futures rose 0.25%, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.1% and China’s CSI 300 fell 0.54% as of CNBC’s 3:42 a.m. ET update.[8] France’s 10-year yield fell 5 basis points by 3:40 a.m. ET after Moody’s held its Aa3 rating, CNBC reported.[8] The S&P 500 fell 0.52% at Friday’s 4 p.m. ET close, per Reuters.[10]

Why it matters: Reuters said markets imply an 80% chance of a December Fed hike, with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon reporting this week.[9]

Exhibit 1. Yields rose Oct. 23; EIA crude spot fell Oct. 20 Yields in %, crude in $/bbl; change vs. the prior business day

Measure (date, source)	Level	Chg
2-year Treasury par yield, Oct. 23, per Treasury	4.69%	▲ +4 bp
10-year Treasury par yield, Oct. 23, per Treasury	5.00%	▲ +4 bp
30-year Treasury par yield, Oct. 23, per Treasury	5.33%	▲ +4 bp
Brent spot, Oct. 20, per EIA	$115.22	▼ −$3.60
WTI spot, Oct. 20, per EIA	$107.89	▼ −$2.12

EIA publishes daily spot prices weekly; futures settles are in the text. Source: U.S. Treasury; U.S. Energy Information Administration. Table: New Street.

Notes

• Accessed Oct. 26, 2026, 3:58 to 4:20 a.m. ET.